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Klearchos A. Kyriakides
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The United Kingdom may be staring into the abyss. On Thursday 18th September 2014, a referendum will take place in Scotland – but not in the remainder of the United Kingdom – over whether or not Scotland should ‘become an independent country’. If the voters in Scotland say ‘YES’, then the United Kingdom faces the bleak prospect of being partitioned. With the opinion polls suggesting that the vote is almost too close to call, the President of the Republic of Cyprus and the Cypriot diaspora in Scotland may make all the difference to the outcome and thereby help to spare the United Kingdom from the perils arising from its partition.
It must, of course, be acknowledged that the pro-independence movement in Scotland is markedly different to the illegal break-away regime in Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus . On the one hand, Scotland was an independent state before the Acts of Union 1707 and it is currently governed by lawfully established devolved institutions under the Scotland Act 1998. On the other hand, the so-called ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’ has never been an internationally-recognised sovereign state; the ‘TRNC’ is nothing more than the illegal subordinate local administration of Turkey, the latter of which is the occupying power in northern Cyprus with primary responsibility for the illegal invasion, ethnic cleansing, segregation and colonisation of that area. Partly for these reasons, many Cypriots may relish the prospect of the United Kingdom being partitioned. After all, the United Kingdom is a former imperial power which shoulders a significant measure of responsibility for the de facto partition of the Republic of Cyprus , as well as the partition of some other parts of the world formerly under British rule.
A desire for vengeance, however, is never a good basis upon which to form a rational judgment. By contrast, a calculated analysis suggests that the national security, national interests and values of the Republic of Cyprus would be adversely affected if, pursuant to a ‘YES’ vote in the forthcoming Scottish referendum, the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom is undermined. Irrespective of whether a ‘YES’ vote results in Scotland seceding or separating from the United Kingdom or whether the United Kingdom is dissolved and replaced by two sovereign states, the Republic of Cyprus would face at least three potentially damaging ramifications.
Firstly and perhaps most importantly, the partition of the United Kingdom would represent the first occasion on which an existing Member State of the European Union has been carved up into two sovereign states during its membership of that organisation. No less importantly, the partition of the United Kingdom would not only result in the partition of its territory, but in the partition of its airspace, territorial sea and exclusive economic zone, including its zone in the North Sea . As the future unfolds, the precedents established by the current Scottish referendum process and any future partition process might well return to haunt those Member States of the European Union, which are facing secessionist or separatist movements. These include Belgium , Spain and the Republic of Cyprus . The latter will be at particular risk if it is ever transformed into an energy-producing bi-communal, bi-zonal federation and if a pro-partition party thereafter gains control of one of the two proposed constituent states. In that regard, the decision to conduct an independent referendum in Scotland alone – but not in the remainder of the United Kingdom – is an exceptionally dangerous and divisive precedent which has already been set. It is not too difficult to envisage circumstances under which the leadership of any proposed post-settlement ‘ Turkish Cypriot Constituent State ’ follows the Scottish precedent and holds a referendum over whether to break away from a federal Cyprus . All in all, a ‘YES’ vote in Scotland would give even greater currency to the concept of partition and it would further encourage separatist and secessionist movements within the European Union and beyond.
Secondly, any partition of the United Kingdom would inevitably erode the effectiveness of its armed forces, as well as its intelligence and security services. One consequence would be that the balance of power on the Island of Cyprus would tilt even further in favour of Turkey . Another consequence would be to undermine the capability of the United Kingdom to honour its treaty obligation to ‘guarantee the independence, territorial integrity and security of the Republic of Cyprus ’. Although the United Kingdom did not comply with this obligation when it mattered most, during the Turkish invasion of 1974, this does not mean that the United Kingdom may not choose to do so in the future, especially in circumstances where its national security, national interests or values will be served by protecting the Republic of Cyprus . For example, in view of the emerging new threats which have arisen since the ‘Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’ started to spread its aggressive tentacles across the Middle East, the United Kingdom may have to defend the Sovereign Base Areas and to honour its guarantee to the Republic of Cyprus. However, it is debatable whether a post-partition United Kingdom would have the capacity to do so in any decisive way.
Thirdly, it has been mooted that if the United Kingdom is to be partitioned pursuant to a ‘YES’ vote, then this ought to take place subject to the retention of British sovereign base areas in one or more parts of an independent Scotland, such as the Faslane Naval Base on the Clyde. At present, moral if not legal question marks hang over the two British Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus , partly because they are unique on the world stage. However, the retention of British sovereign base areas in an independent Scotland may lend legitimacy to the concept of sovereign base areas and thereby undermine any future Cypriot endeavour to acquire or assert sovereignty over the British Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus .
In so far as the author is aware, it has not been proposed that an independent Scotland would lay claim to one of the two Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus . Even so, that possibility cannot be entirely discounted if, upon partition, the assets of the United Kingdom are divided between Scotland and the remainder of the United Kingdom .
In view of the above, should the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Mr Nicos Anastasiades, as well as the members of the Cypriot diaspora in Scotland, be proactive?
For his part, President Anastasiades may wish to consider issuing a carefully worded pre-referendum statement which draws attention to one or more of the matters outlined above and invites the voters in Scotland to take these into consideration. Any such statement could assert that the Republic of Cyprus reserves the right to stand in the way of any Scottish bid to join the European Union as a Member State . In that regard, the President of the European Commission has already warned that if Scotland becomes independent it would have to apply to join the European Union and, in that eventuality, all Member States would have to approve its accession. If that assessment is correct, then the Republic of Cyprus has the power of veto.
In the interests of the Republic of Cyprus , President Anastasiades may also consider appointing a special envoy to assess the recent constitutional history of the United Kingdom , to draw the salient lessons with relevance to the Republic of Cyprus and, irrespective of the outcome of the referendum in Scotland , to engage in ongoing monitoring of the situation. After all, even if there is a ‘NO’ vote, the United Kingdom is now likely to be subject to a new set of federal or quasi-federal constitutional arrangements which might open another Pandora’s Box with implications for the Republic of Cyprus. Indeed, on reflection, a cardinal lesson of this sorry saga is painfully apparent and highly pertinent to the Republic of Cyprus: if a unitary sovereign state engages in the appeasement of nationalists and, to that end, engages in radical constitutional reform which transfers power away from the organs of central government, then such a state might fuel nationalism, destabilise its governance, endanger its territorial integrity and trigger a constitutional crisis.
To be sure, President Anastasiades may understandably wish to adhere to the etiquette of international diplomacy and thereby refrain from interfering in the Scottish referendum process. Nevertheless, the national security, national interests and values of the Republic of Cyprus are at stake and – over these matters at least – they correspond with those of the United Kingdom . Besides, prime ministers of the United Kingdom have been meddling in the internal affairs of Cyprus since at least 1878. Indeed, before the referendum which took place in 2004 in Cyprus over whether or not to approve the United Nations Plan for Cyprus , a number of British ministers, including the then prime minister, Tony Blair, publicly endorsed the Plan. Furthermore, during their respective premierships, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown each appointed a special envoy for Cyprus . Accordingly, President Anastasiades should not be deterred from turning the tables if he deems it appropriate to do so. It is his call.
If the vote in Scotland is on a knife edge, the outcome of the referendum may hinge upon the hundreds if not thousands of voters in Scotland who have ties to Cyprus . These include British citizens who have roots or relatives in the Republic of Cyprus , as well as Cypriot citizens who are registered to vote in Scotland . Indeed, the fate of the United Kingdom may be determined by the way in which such voters decide to vote. In the opinion of the writer, they should vote ‘NO’, for the reasons outlined above and for other reasons too.
It would be the irony of ironies if the President and diaspora of a small island republic, which has been partitioned de facto as a by-product of the policies of the United Kingdom, plays a part in preserving the United Kingdom and preventing it from becoming partitioned de jure. Then again, this might represent the ultimate act of magnanimity which heralds the onset of a mutually favourable new era in bilateral relations between the Republic of Cyprus and the United Kingdom . Time will tell, but time is running out.
Klearchos A. Kyriakides
Date: 12th September 2014
Dr Klearchos A. Kyriakides is a Senior Lecturer in Law and a non-practising Solicitor in the School of Law of the University of Hertfordshire . The thoughts expressed in the above article reflect the personal views of the author, who is a British citizen resident in England and, thus, ineligible to vote in the referendum Scotland . Accordingly, his views should not be interpreted as being those of the University of Hertfordshire or of any other organisation with which he is associated.
Contact details:
Tel: 0044 78 261 58814
Email: k.a.kyriakides@herts.ac.uk
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